Ahmet TURAN

The Caucasus holds a significant place in Türkiye’s foreign policy due to its deep-rooted history and close ties with the region. Azerbaijan is among the countries to which Ankara attaches particular importance. Russia, another key actor in the region, shares similar ambitions with Türkiye. Moscow's determination to maintain its presence and influence in the region fuels a Türkiye-Russia rivalry in the Caucasus. At the heart of this rivalry lies the Karabakh issue. This study aims to analyze the Türkiye-Russia rivalry during the First Karabakh War in light of the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism. In this context, the study focuses on the parameters shaping the rivalry between the two countries during the 1992–1993 conflict. Drawing on the theoretical propositions of neoclassical realism, the analysis is conducted using unit-level and system-level variables. The findings reveal that the rivalry during the First Karabakh War was systematic in nature, with military and political dimensions at its core. Furthermore, Türkiye’s role in the Karabakh issue was at times constrained by its material power capacity and systemic factors. This study examines information, documents, and reports issued by official authorities of direct or indirect parties to the Karabakh issue, as well as statements from leaders and administrators involved in the conflict.
Keywords: Türkiye, Russia, First Karabakh War, Rivalry, Neoclassical Realism