Muhammet Nimet ÇAVUŞ

This study examines the impact of economic growth, political stability, and the absence of violence/terrorism on tourist arrivals in 15 countries within the MENA region. The dataset used in the study covers a 22-year period from 2002 to 2023. The aim of the study is to analyze the effects of political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth on tourist arrivals in the selected 15 MENA countries using an appropriate panel data model. The literature review indicates that the model developed in this study has not been previously estimated. To determine the appropriate panel data model for estimating the research model, cross-sectional dependence tests, unit root tests, the Hausman test, heteroskedasticity tests, and autocorrelation tests were conducted. The results of these assumption tests indicate the presence of cross-sectional dependence, heteroskedasticity, and first-order autocorrelation. Therefore, the Flexible Generalized Least Squares (FGLS) estimator, which accounts for these assumptions, was employed to estimate the research model. According to the estimation results, an increase in political stability, the absence of violence/terrorism, and economic growth leads to an increase in tourist arrivals to MENA countries.

Keywords: Economic growth, Absence of terrorism, Tourist arrivals, MENA, Panel data analysis