BRICS-T COUNTRIES’ DEVELOPMENT RELATIONSHIP WITH POPULATION GROWTH RATE: COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS WITH STRUCTURAL BREAK

Gökhan KONAT

Eda FENDOĞLU

The world's population began to grow rapidly, especially after the 1950s. Birth, death rates, and migration rates are key drivers of population growth. Population growth plays a crucial role in the country's economic development. The impact of population growth on economic development has been the subject of controversial empirical studies. The researchers argued that population growth could have a positive effect on economic development, as well as negative effects. The BRICS-T (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey) country group is of great importance as it hosts countries with high growth rates, increased exports and national income, abundant natural resources, geopolitical location, logistical possibilities, and development potential in recent years. This study explores the relationship between development and population growth rate of BRICS-T countries, which have almost half the world's population and whose emerging economies are notable. To this end, Human development index data from the United Nations Development Program official database and annual population growth rate data from the World Bank official database were used, covering the 1990-2019 period. Panel data analysis methods taking into account multiple structural breaks were exploited. For this, the structural break panel unit root test which allows up to 5 structural breaks to two variables, developed by Carrion-i Silvestre et al. (2005), was applied. Then, the panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks was then carried out, which took into account structural breaks and was introduced into literature by Banerjee and Carrion-i Silvestre (2015). As a result of the findings, there appears to be a long-term relationship between the two variables.

Keywords: Development, Population Growth, BRICS-T Countries, Structural Breaks, Structural Break Panel Unit Root, Panel Cointegration With Multiple Structural Breaks.